Lech Poznań–Sunderland

LAST FIVE AND THREE — NATIONAL LEAGUE ONLY — OLDEST→LATEST + xG/xGA SAME xgEdge MODEL

LECH Ekstraklasa:

06/09 Raków(H) W1–0 xG2.84 xGA.40, shots27–8 SOT6–1 corners8–2.

12/09 Górnik(A) L1–2 xG.50 xGA1.53, shots10–12 SOT1–4 corners4–5.

20/09 Radomiak(H) W5–1 xG3.98 xGA.98 shots26–12 SOT9–5 corner10–6.

10/10 Śląsk(A) W4–1 xG2.04 xGA.77 shots16–7 SOT5–4 corner4–3. Statz match log shows "1-4" due to fixture score order although result was Lech 4-1; xgEdge score1-4 from Śląsk home perspective.

18/10 Korona(H) W6–1 xG2.24 xGA1.19 shots14–15 SOT6–5 corners5–7.

LAST 5 W4 D0 L1 GF17 GA5, xG11.60/5=2.320, xGA4.87/5=0.974, shots93/5=18.60 for,54/5=10.80 allowed, SOT27/5=5.40 for 19/5=3.80 conceded, corners31/5=6.20 for 23/5=4.60 against.

LAST 3 Radom/Śląsk/Korona W3 GF15 GA3, xG(3.98+2.04+2.24)/3=2.753, xGA(.98+.77+1.19)/3=.98, shots56/3=18.67 allowed34/3=11.33; SOT20/3=6.67 allowed14/3=4.67, corners19/3=6.33 conceded16/3=5.33.

LECH domestic latest5 TOTAL match goals: 1,3,6,5,7 => ≥4 in 3/5, ≥5 in3/5. High average inflated 6-1 &5-1 vs lower quality teams. Source ; ; ; .

SUNDERLAND Premier League:

05/09 Brentford (A) D1–1 xG1.71 xGA1.21, shots14–12 SOT5–2 corner3–4.

12/09 Arsenal (H) L0–2 xG1.80 xGA1.88, shots12–11 SOT3–5 corner4–2.

20/09 Man City (A) L3–5 xG3.57 xGA2.82, shots17–16 SOT9–6 corner5–6.

10/10 Brighton (H) L0–2 xG.64 xGA1.12, shots12–13 SOT3–4 corner7–5.

18/10 Bournemouth (A) L0–2 xG.07 xGA4.32, shots3–29 SOT0–6 corner3–5. Sunderland reduced to10 men in this match: materially compromised late-shots context, don't project 4.32 xGA stable.

Last5 W0 D1 L4 GF4 GA12 xG7.79/5=1.558, xGA11.35/5=2.270, shots58/5=11.60, shots conceded81/5=16.20, SOT20/5=4.00 allowed23/5=4.60, corners22/5=4.40 allowed22/5=4.40.

Last3 City/Brighton/BOU W0 D0 L3 GF3 GA9, xG(3.57+.64+.07)/3=1.427, xGA(2.82+1.12+4.32)/3=2.753, shots32/3=10.67 conceded58/3=19.33, SOT12/3=4.00 conceded16/3=5.33, corners15/3=5.0 conceded16/3=5.33.

Last5 match totals 2,2,8,2,2 => ≥4 ONLY1/5, ≥5 only1/5, stark contrast against Lech. Premier quality opponents Arsenal and City, while BOU advantage vs depleted SUN impacts sample; consider EPL competition strength.

NATIONAL SEASON AND VENUE SPLITS WITH DENOMINATORS

Lech Ekstraklasa n10 W8 D1 L1, Pts25, GF27 GA9, xG2.09/g xGA.91/g; HOME n6 (model) xG2.46 xGA.83 (xgEdge), GF home from every xgEdge 0+3+2+1+5+6=17 in6 and GA 0+0+1+0+1+1=3. HOME order: Cracovia0-0, Piast3-0, Jagiellonia2-1,Rakow1-0,Radom5-1,Korona6-1. 5/6 home wins 1 draw 0loss; no claim identical opponent strengths. Lech Statz latest10 mixed shots home18.6 SOT6.0 corners home6.4 BUT last10 home includes EL Leverkusen home and may mix; distinguish domestic xG n6 and shots mixed venue n5. Lech domestic league corners n10 for6.70 allowed4.50 (league-specific full table). xG provider model one team across full league.

Sunderland EPL n7 W1 D1 L5 Pts4, GF6 GA14, xG1.46, xGA2.02; AWAY n4 W0D1L3 (Ipswich L1-2, BrentfordD1-1, City L3-5, Bournemouth L0-2) GF5GA10 xG1.50/g xGA2.54/g. Note 0.07xG Bournemouth for extreme. Pure EPL corner n7 own4.29 conceded4.14; Statz last10 mixed own5.8 conceded4.8, DON'T interchange. Sunderland away PL corners (Ipswich5–3,Brentford3–4,City5–6,BOU3–5) => own16/4=4.00, conceded18/4=4.50, differs from mixed away5.0/4.0.

Cross-league issue: Lech creates vs Polish defense, Sunderland defends vs EPL teams; 2.46 Polish xG home cannot be averaged mechanically with 2.54 EPL xGA away to imply 2.50 xG tonight. Sunderland may be psych boosted by 2 European W and have 6pt but numerically weak on road domestic.

PROBABLE XI, ABSENCES, CHANGES THAT AFFECT PROPS

Lech probable 4-2-3-1 Lis; Joel Pereira, Skrzypczak, Terry Yegbe or doubtful Monka, Gurgul; Kozubal, Murawski (returned EL suspension); Wålemark, Pablo Rodríguez or Berggren shifted, Luis Palma; Mikael Ishak. Racing Post Oct21: Lis; Pereira,Skrzypczak,Yegbe,Gurgul; Murawski,Rodríguez; Wålemark,Berggren,Palma;Ishak; InfoBetting Oct21 Monka CB (but injured vs Leverkusen), Kozubal alongside Murawski, Pablo CAM. Alternatives Leo Bengtsson and Jagiello; authoritatively probable, NOT official. OUT Sayyadmanesh, Alex Douglas, Gholizadeh; Mońka doubtful; Murawski allowed after prior European suspension.

Sunderland 4-2-3-1 Roefs; Trai Hume, Kevin Danso/Omar Alderete doubtful, Luke O'Nien, Dayann Méthalie; Noah Sadiki, Jules Ahoka / Granit Xhaka (rest possibility); Nilson Angulo, Chris Rigg, Malick Fofana; Tymur Tutierov / fit-tested Brian Brobbey. Alternative Enzo Le Fée playmaker, Xhaka high-quality reserve if rested. OUT Ballard, Meunier, Mundle; Isidor doubt/not ready and Brobbey could return, Alderete fitness issue, Habib Diarra hamstring. Racing Post21Oct explicitly Xhaka not in probable XI (Ahoka+Sadiki), Infobetting21Oct starts Xhaka+Sadiki; don't label rested fact confirmed.

Note some lineup pages host pre-rendered eleven lists before kickoff, DO NOT ASSUME official XI.

LECH 11 ROLE-RELEVANT INDIVIDUAL EVIDENCE

Statz source mixed national+Europa, 12 matches, totals and minutes not per90:

GK Lis 12apps/1080m, goalkeeper positioning, close range saves and build-up; numerical shot attempts irrelevant.

RB Joel Pereira12/987m, 26 tackles,26 chances created,4 assists,13 fouls, excellent overlap and ball progression, risk Nilson Angulo counter.

CB Skrzypczak9/766m, only 2 tackles,7 fouls in provider (different defensive tasks: positional clearances, interceptions not numeric here), organize against Tutierov/Brobbey.

CB Yegbe6/447m, 2 tackles5 fouls, physical central replacement if Monka injured; Monka11/915,6 tackles5 fouls, continuity and positional communication. Don't conflate center backs/estimate clearances as observed.

LB Gurgul12/1034, 11 tackles,11 chances,2 assists,4 fouls, protect Fofana and overlap with Palma.

CDM Kozubal7/526, 11 tackles7 fouls,5 chances, cover central and protect outside overload.

CDM Murawski11/790, 21 tackles,25 fouls3 yellows, high-contact, returning from EL suspension, careful vs Rigg / Sadiki press; no card recommendation without accessible odds.

RW Wålemark12/782 5g3a,13 SOT,19chances, xG0.7 season total (statz model shows huge overshoot), winger moves inverted, watch full-match minutes and denominator; Statz qualifying10 appearances14SOT different cohort than squad12/782 13 SOT, keep separate.

CAM Pablo Rodríguez12/852, 6g6a,9SOT,26chances,19 tackles, xG1.3, remarkable observed goal conversion vs xG in provider (requires sample provider caution), most decisive creator central, possible alternative deployed CM if Berggren CAM.

LW Luis Palma11/639 1g2a,7SOT,12chances,4tackles4fouls, left foot cut-in vs Trai Hume.

ST Ishak10/575, 3goals3assists xG1.9 11SOT 9chances,6 tackles8 fouls; at age33 interpretation/movements and linkplay exceed price, 575min not 900. Other Statz shot-specific source top shot count cannot just divide Statz squad totals.

Material absentees Sayyadmanesh9/515 5 goals9 SOT, uncertainty winger replaces output, Gholizadeh out, Douglas defense out. Possible Yannick Agnero12/451 2g7SOT, dynamic alternative; Berggren7/303 6 tackles6 fouls, steadier second mid.

SUNDERLAND ELEVEN + ALT, ROLE EVIDENCE

mixed EPL/UEL/Carabao n10 up to Oct18; stats totals/individual minutes:

GK Robin Roefs9/810 goalkeeper commanding crosses and 1v1, recent 6 shots on target conceded at Bournemouth. No arbitrary shot output.

RB Trai Hume9/603 21 tackles8 fouls2yellow,10chances, high defender activity vs Palma and overlapping Gurgul.

CB Kevin Danso6/461 4 tackles6fouls,5chances, strong aerial and physical battle Ishak, uncertain if starts if Alderete selected (Alderete5/314 only1 tackle7fouls2YC, fitness doubt).

CB O'Nien4/278 3 tackles5 fouls,2YC, less data, leadership/communication, vulnerable near Pablo movement.

LB Méthalie4/230 3 tackles2 fouls1YC, younger/inexperienced, defend against Wålemark and Joel combination. Alternative Reinildo8/645 12 tackles9 fouls, more seasoned.

CDM Jules Ahoka3/205 1g,4 tackles,3 fouls, starter latest prediction; experience-limited. Alternative Xhaka9/751,16 tackles5fouls21chances,1assist, high-level veteran especially positional and long diagonal distribution: if NOT starter Sunderland quality of attack construction decreases noticeably.

CM Noah Sadiki9/772 1g4SOT,13tackles5 fouls,8? source created7; pressure & midfield progression, duel Murawski.

RW Nilson Angulo8/473 1g1a,4SOT,2chances9tackles7 fouls, carries ball outside Gurgul, valuable speed but 473min not entire.

CAM Chris Rigg6/268 10tackles,7chances,4fouls1YC, pressing/triggers, 268 mins tiny compared to 90 full.

LW Malick Fofana7/320,4SOT,2chances,2tackles6fouls; explosive 1v1 vs Joel, sample short. Alternate Enzo Le Fée9/733 2g1a xG3.2 5SOT15chances,13tackles7fouls, meaningful creative absence if bench.

ST Tutierov3/160, no shots on target recorded, 2 fouls, limited senior 90min reference; if Brobbey6/424 3g vs xG2.9,5 SOT5 chances returns he changes finishing and aerial duel; Wilson Isidor8/353 1 goal2SOT OUT/doubt; player sportsbook lists Isidor even if injury, listing DOES NOT verify eligibility.

Additional Mukiele8/661 18tackles3YC, athletic alternative RB to Hume; Meunier8/481 two assists but injured, is a material source of crossing and experience.

Sunderland relative higher Transfermarkt roster value but poor results, must not assume better role-by-role.

TRANSFERMARKT AND TECHNICAL MARKET DISTINCTION

TM comparable squad season2026/27 crawled older snapshot: Lech €56.60m,27 players ; Sunderland €383.18m 31 players . ~6.77x difference economic but not calibrated to game strength, especially Newcastle/Man City vs Polish clubs; exact temporal synchronized values unavailable. Ishak33 positional and goal/assists, Murawski experienced pressing, Xhaka34 elite long/short distribution independent of lower valuation; young Tutierov paid for potential not proof top striker.

AT LEAST 7 REAL 11v11 ROLE DUELS + GAME STATES

1 Ishak vs Danso/O'Nien: Ishak 3g3a 575min, O'Nien only278min, Danso461min, physical hold-up and CB coverage; if Alderete starts differ left foot.

2 Wålemark + Joel Pereira vs Méthalie: Wålemark19 created13 SOT, Joel26 created26 tackles, Mét230min, Sunderland LB can be overloaded. Potential offensive advantage despite Lech 0goals in Europe.

3 Palma vs Hume: LB/RW, Hume21 tackles603min but Palace? ignore, Palma7SOT/639, may create cross to Ishak and force Hume deep.

4 Pablo Rodríguez vs Sadiki/Ahoka or Xhaka: Pablo26chances 6a, young Ahoka205min vs Xhaka21 chances and field orientation; central switch materially changes selection.

5 Murawski vs Rigg/Le Fée: Murawski25 fouls, Rigg10 tackles268min, could yield frequent fouls/interrupt flow, but individual official player foul odds not directly visible in extracted book. Don't recommend card by intuition.

6 Angulo vs Gurgul: Angulo4 SOT 473min with acceleration, Gurgul11 tackles/1034, risk transition if Lech FB goes forward.

7 Fofana vs Pereira/Skrzypczak: Fofana rapid vs Joel offensive overlap; if Sunderland finds wide counter -> opportunities.

8 Sunderland 9/young Tutierov vs Skrzypczak/Yegbe: ST novice160min vs defense recovering from two European 0-4; if Brobbey fit adds finish on through ball; uncertain.

9 Fullbacks Lech high vs Sunderland direct despite Sunderland 0.07xG at BOU last match red card, don't extrapolate red incident as stable.

0-0 long feasible because Lech two clean blank EURO and Sunderland 3 of recent 5 league scoreless; Lech early goal may force Sunderland forward, over2.5 becomes stronger; Sunderland early goal -> Lech pushes and spaces for Fofana/Angulo, also over; Sunderland manages game1-0 or2-0 -> Under counter.

EXPECTED SCORE & SCORE_TAIL V4

Central 1-2 Sunderland, alternative 2-1 Lech (domestic finishing top form), alternative 0-2 Sunderland (two European goalless Lech), extra 4+ 2-2, maybe 1-3 if home full chase. Real 4+ last5 league Lech 3/5, Sunderland 1/5, don't set 4+ mandatory as modal. SCORE_NOT_CALIBRATED, no made-up P(1-2), P(4+), P(5+). No percentages without calibrated model. 1-2 is soccer tactical scenario not "book correct-score prediction".

🚩 Calci d’angolo e palle inattive

I conteggi fatti e concessi, distinti per campione quando disponibili, sono riportati nelle sezioni statistiche delle due squadre. Restano indicatori tecnici di pressione e non una raccomandazione su mercati corner.

🧠 Risultati esatti e scenario da quattro gol

Gli esatti sono proiezioni tattiche, non percentuali calibrate.

📊 Mercati esaminati e valutazione

Il confronto di mercato nel dossier distingue 1X2, gol squadra, totali, entrambe a segno, handicap, mercati dei tempi e individuali soltanto quando correttamente leggibili. Le statistiche sui corner non sono trasformate in giocate.

Over 2,5 gol partita · quota 1,78 · voto di fiducia tecnica 6,3/10.

La quota è un riferimento editoriale numerico; il voto deriva dalla valutazione tecnico-calcistica e non equivale a una probabilità di successo.